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Good friends, PGA pros and major champions Shane Lowry and Rory McIlroy on the 18th tee at Bay Hill … [+]
The Arnold Palmer Invitational 2025 Signature Event continues into the weekend with a stacked leaderboard shooting for a big payday and $4 million top prize. Irishman Shane Lowry (-8) holds the 36-hole lead, and is one of seven major champions who are currently in the top-8 on the leaderboard.
Chasing Lowry are Wyndham Clark, Collin Morikawa, Rory McIlroy, Jason Day, Justin Thomas and Keegan Bradley. Six of the seven stars and major winners are in their 30’s with Morikawa (28) the youngest. Six are also ranked top-20 in the world rankings with Jason Day No. 34.
Also in the mix is top-20 player Russell Henley (-4) and Canadian Corey Conners (-5). PGA Tour rookie Max Greyserman (-3) is the other player in the top-10 on the leaderboard and he used an eagle on the easiest par 5 at No. 16 and birdie on the toughest scoring hole on 18 Friday to make his case to challenge the world class leaders.
World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler, the pre-tournament favorite and 2-time Masters champion, is 1-under par along with U.S. Open champion Justin Rose. This year’s West Coast PGA Tour winners also under par are world No. 4 Ludvig Aberg, who won The Genesis Invitational at Torrey Pines, and top-20 player Sepp Straka, who won The American Express at PGA West.
Arnold Palmer Invitational Adjusted Odds
Odds to win the Arnold Palmer Invitational ahead of Round 3 Saturday with players scores under par listed. Golf odds refresh periodically and are subject to change, including on props and live betting. Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook, and will be updated here again ahead of Sunday’s final round.
- -8: Shane Lowry (+280)
- -6: Wyndham Clark (+700)
- -5: Collin Morikawa (+600)
- -5: Corey Conners (+1200)
- -4: Rory McIlroy (+450)
- -4: Russell Henley (+1600)
- -4: Jason Day (+2200)
- -3: Justin Thomas (+1800)
- -3: Keegan Bradley (+3000)
- -3: Max Greyserman (+4500)
- -2: Si Woo Kim (+7000)
- -1: Scottie Scheffler (+1100)
- -1: Ludvig Aberg (+3500)
- -1: Sungjae Im (+9000)
- -1: Tony Finau (+10000)
- -1: Sepp Straka (+11000)
- -1: Justin Rose (+30000)
- -1: Mackenzie Hughes (+35000)
Also, world No. 2 Xander Schauffele made his 2025 debut on Tour at Bay Hill as he’s recovering from a rib injury. Schauffele overcame an opening round 77 to make the cut on the number making six birdies Friday, but two back-to-back double bogey’s derailed his round on the back nine.
Update: Betting data from FanDuel ahead of tournament with more money into the outright win betting pools and props.
Top 10 to Win by Bet Count: Aberg, Scheffler, Thomas, Lowry, Clark, Cantlay, McIlroy, Morikawa, Fleetwood, Taylor
Top 10 to Win by Handle: Scheffler, Aberg, Thomas, McIlroy, Cantlay, Clark, Lowry, Fleetwood, Morikawa, Bradley
Tournament Stats
Jason Day fired the low round Friday at 8-under par 64 and led the field in Strokes Gained Putting (+4.36) and Total (+7.96). Shane Lowry and Sungjae Im both fired 67 and T3 in SG: Total (+4.96) behind Sepp Straka (+5.96), who shot 66.
For the tournament, strokes gained leaders according to Data Golf and its live stats and scoring model include:
- SG: Total – Lowry (+5.29), Clark (+4.29), Morikawa and Conners (+3.79), Day, Henley and McIlroy (+3.29)
- SG: Tee to Green – Morikawa (+3.75), Thomas (+3.71), Scheffler (+3.51), Lowry (+3.34), Bradley (+3.13), Clark (+2.95)
- SG: Approach – JJ Spaun (+2.55), Lowry (+2.51), Hovland (+2.13), Bradley (+1.89)
Henley, Morikawa, Matsuyama and Scheffler lead the field in SG: Around the Green. Putting has not been as important on this course thus far with SG: Putting leaders Sam Burns (+2.56), Matt Fitzpatrick and Ben Griffin all outside the top-30 while Day, Lowry and Clark the only leaders in the top-10. Despite elite play from Tee to Green, Scottie Scheffler’s putting problems continue to plague him (-1.72) along with the three worst putting performances in the field this week of Harris English, Viktor Hovland and Tom Kim.
Playing partners and good friends Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry walk the 13th hole at Bay Hill Club … [+]
Lowry The Leader
Shane Lowry has been testing new drivers this week, and found one he really liked on Tuesday. But following Friday’s round, he said “I don’t have a lot of trust in it at the minute. There’s a handful of really, really tough tee shots out here and you really need a great level of committment and trust. It’s getting there, it felt a little better, and I hit a great tee shot on 18. But I’m not as comfortable as I normally am, and the driver is normally one of the best clubs in my bag.”
Lowry also said his iron play has been good through two rounds (No. 2 Approach, No. 4 Tee to Green), and “I’ve just enjoyed the grind of tough golf.”
Since 2021, Shane Lowry makes the fewest bogeys/worse of any player on the PGA Tour Florida Swing (about 2.5 per round). His only bogey Friday was a missed 4-foot putt on the par 5 at No. 16. Lowry has three bogeys in the tournament while Collin Morikawa has the fewest in the field with two playing his last 27 holes without a bogey or worse.
Saturday weather forecast in Orlando shows mostly sunny skies and low 80’s with light winds before Sunday warms up a bit more and partly cloudy with winds up to 15 mph.
Saturday’s Round 3 Leaders and Tee Times
- 1:50 pm ET: Lowry, Clark
- 1:40 pm: Morikawa, Conners
- 1:30 pm: McIlroy, Henley
- 1:20 pm: Day, Greyserman
- 1:10 pm: Thomas, Bradley
Watch Saturday-Sunday 12:30-2:30 (Golf Channel) and 2:30-6, NBC/Peacock with PGA Tour Live on ESPN+.
Featured Holes: No. 2, 14, 17 (Par 3’s) and No. 6 (Par 5)
Toughest scoring holes: Par 4’s at No. 18, 8, 15, 1, 9 and Par 3’s at No. 2, 17
Round 3 Matchups
Matchups and odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.
- Clark (-115) vs. Conners (-110)
- Scheffler (-165) vs. McIlroy (+125)
- Si Woo Kim (-115) vs. Day (-110)
- Bradley (-115) vs. Finau (-110)
- Morikawa (-115) vs. Thomas (-105)
- Aberg (-140) vs. Cantlay (+100)
- Fleetwood (-115) vs. Matsuyama (-110)
- Burns (-120) vs. Berger (-105)
- Griffin (-115) vs. Straka (-110)
Interesting that Lowry is not offered in Round 3 matchups, and we’ll update ahead of Sunday’s final Round 4 along with adjusted odds.
Follow more PGA Tour news, stats, odds and information you can bet on including the matchups and live betting opportunities throughout the tournament.
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