Evaluating OKC Thunder’s Season With 20 Games Remaining

It’s been a phenomenal season thus far for the Oklahoma City Thunder, who boast a 51-11 record with just 20 games remaining in the regular season. Despite numerous long-term injuries and other hurdles, Oklahoma City has essentially locked up the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference and is led by MVP frontrunner Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

With that in mind, the remainder of the regular season doesn’t hold much significance, as the priorities will shift to health and building chemistry ahead of the playoffs. It’s also important to look back at how the Thunder got here.

What are the five biggest themes and takeaways for the Thunder to this point in the season, with 20 games remaining?

Perimeter Shooting Turnaround

After finishing as the most accurate 3-point shooting team in the NBA last season, OKC entered the 2024-25 campaign with an intentional emphasis on increasing perimeter volume. It was a slow start to the season from beyond the arc, as the Thunder achieved its volume increase, but struggled to convert at a high rate. At the end of November, Oklahoma City ranked in the bottom third of the league in 3-point shooting percentage.

But since the start of December, that had turned around. The Thunder is now sixth in 3-point efficiency (37.6%) since Dec. 1 and has only improved as time has gone on. Since the turn of the calendar year, OKC has been the best 3-point shooting team at a 39% clip.

This is important, as perimeter shooting — or lack thereof — hurt the Thunder in the playoffs last year. Ensuring this momentum is carried into the playoffs this time around will be key.

Historically Great Defense

Again, the Thunder offense has come around, but it wasn’t great early. Early in the season, as Oklahoma City looked to find its identity on that end of the floor, a historically great defense kept the team as one of the best in the league.

While the success on the defensive end has fluctuated throughout the season, it’s holistically been one of the best in recent history. Oklahoma City boasts a 105.9 defensive rating, which is 3.5 points better than the second-best defense in the league. On a points-per-possession allowed basis, that’s the largest gap between the first and second-best defenses in the league in at least 30 years.

Oklahoma City’s defense is elite due to the roster’s number of top-level defenders. Lu Dort, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams are all in the conversation for NBA Defensive Player of the Year.

Chet Holmgren and Alex Caruso would be as well, if it weren’t for the injuries they’ve each faced. Furthermore, Cason Wallace and Isaiah Hartenstein are statistically some of the better defenders in the league and really elevate the Thunder on that end.

Aaron Wiggins’ Emergence

One of Oklahoma City’s priorities in the offseason was extending Aaron Wiggins, who signed a team-friendly deal worth $45 million over five years. Since that deal was inked, it’s become arguably the best contract in the NBA, with Wiggins’ emergence as a primary contributor.

While Oklahoma City has a plethora of players who receive plenty of national attention, Wiggins quietly is one of the team’s best players. He’s fourth on the team in scoring at 11.5 points per game and has really taken it to the next level of late. Since Feb. 1, Wiggins is third on the team, scoring 17.8 points per contest on 54/48/82 splits.

He’s been a critical piece late in games for the Thunder, coming alive in the biggest moments. He has scored 174 points in the fourth quarter this season, which is second on the Thunder. He has gone from a smart cutter and play-finisher to a legitimate self-creator who can generate his own shots.

The upside for Wiggins will be even higher in the playoffs with the gravity Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams will demand, so he could become an X-factor. Don’t be surprised if Wiggins becomes a household name in the coming months during a deep playoff run as the surprise hero.

Numbers Suggest Championship Upside

It’s clear that the Thunder has what it takes to win a championship when watching the team play. The eye test has been passed with flying colors, especially with how great this team is on both ends.

To further quantify that, ESPN’s Zach Kram recently released a study on the Thunder’s dominance this season from a numbers perspective. While he gave 22 reasons OKC should scare the rest of the league, two key data points stood out.

For starters, the Thunder have outscored opponents by 12.7 points per game this season, which is on pace to break a 50-year NBA record. Why is that significant? The previous top five teams in point differential all won championships, with a combined 71-12 record in the postseason. Furthermore, none of those five even had a series go to seven games on their respective paths to a title.

Second, Oklahoma City’s lead for the West’s No. 1 seed is historically large at 10.5 games. The Thunder are projected to win the conference by 14 games, according to ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI), which would tie for the largest gap between the No. 1 and 2 seeds in a conference since the NBA-ABA merger if that came to fruition. Of the 12 previous that won their conference by double digits, 10 won the championship. That includes the Boston Celtics just last season.

Isaiah Hartenstein Saves Season

Chet Holmgren going down with an injury early in the season and missing several months could have really been detrimental for the Thunder without the presence of Isaiah Hartenstein. Oklahoma City would have been forced to play small, and while the Thunder would have still been in the playoff mix, it likely would never risen to the top of the Western Conference standings so quickly.

It’s safe to say that signing Hartenstein in free agency was one of the most impactful offseason moves for any team.

Not only did he play a significant role in OKC earning the top seed in the West, but he’ll also be a primary contributor in what should be a deep playoff run. Another flaw in the Thunder’s playoff scheme last year was the minutes in which Holmgren wasn’t on the court. Oklahoma City won his minutes in a big way, but lacked a quality big while he was on the bench, which proved detrimental against the Dallas Mavericks. That won’t be the case this season, as Holmgren and Hartenstein will play together, but also stagger minutes so one is on the floor at nearly all times.

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The 51-11 record that the Oklahoma City Thunder has right now is extremely impressive. But all that matters is the playoffs. As the franchise eyes its first-ever NBA Championship in OKC, all signs to this point in the regular season suggest that’s possible.